From the comments: “Igor, Do you still believe trend is up with near target of over 5? Thanks!”
Let’s take a look at the updated medium-term chart from my analysis on NOK on Jan 05.
The medium-term chart status: Bullish.
Since that time the price tested the lower boundaries of the ascending trend channel indicating oversold conditions and broke out of a consolidation pattern with a long X column later. Pay attention that the price hit targets from the June and September bottoms precisely. At the same time the price reached the upper boundaries of the rising trend channel. Several times before it was a signal about overbought conditions and the price experienced a correction. Taking into account that there is a minor resistance at 4.7 the pause in the uptrend at this level could be expected. The price indeed turned back thus strengthening the resistance level at 4.7. The price is on a buy signal (lime box) and within boundaries of the ascending trend channel, so the ongoing throw back should be considered as a retracement within the bigger uptrend at this time. The question is how low can the price go? Well, theoretically, the price can fall to the lower boundary of the trend channel and still be considered as a retracement. Practically, I would consider suspicious the fall to 4.1. My reason is that we are observing a rise in demand and weakening supply that found a reflection in the longer X column. So, any O column longer than 5 boxes (length of the previous 2 O columns) I would take as a red flag signalling about strengthening supply. Ideally, I’d like to see the price stop at the minor support at 4.3 and turn back. If the price overcomes the 4.7 resistance level, the next level to watch is 4.9.
For the shorter-term view let’s switch to the 1-box reversal chart.
We see that the uptrend accelerated since the breakout of a Symmetrical Triangle. After a brief shakeout in January the price returned into the rising trend channel from late November. So, the borders of this trend channel can serve as guidelines for the current advance. Horizontal counts from the Symmetrical Triangle and the December-January congestion pattern give potential price targets at 5.4 and 5.1 respectively. The overall picture remains bullish.
Disclosure: no positions.