Saturday, January 5, 2013
Jan 05. Reader's Request: Nokia Corp. (NOK).
Long-term chart status: Neutral.
The NOK price is in the long-term downtrend. However, the recent buy signal at 3.50 (lime box) doesn't support short positions, thus the chart has the neutral status.
It was hard to believe that the price can fall so low when the bearish vertical count with a target at 0.75 was established and activated in May 2010. Nevertheless, here we are, just a dollar short from the long-term price objective. Considering the percentage advance from the July low it safe to assume that the long-term bottom is probably in. However, the bottoming process may take time. Note that targets from two previous bullish counts were never achieved and were negated lately when the price broke down below the interim bottoms. The interim Bearish Resistance lines were never challenged. It tells about the substantial bearish pressure and we have yet to see the convincing bull attempt to reverse the long-term downtrend.
Medium-term chart status: Bullish.
On the medium-term chart the price is in an uptrend since the July low. In December the price broke out through the descending Bearish Resistance line reversing the downtrend to uptrend. The following buy signal at 4 (lime box) confirmed the medium-term trend reversal. Note a continuation Symmetrical Triangle pattern the price formed in September-October. Two vertical bullish counts from the July low and the low of the Symmetrical Triangle give one price target at 4.7. The breakout column of Xs from the Symmetrical Triangle points to 5.3 as a price objective. There are two strong resistance levels on the upside at 4.9 and 5.2. Numbers behind resistance levels (4 and 3) stand for the number of reversals the price experienced at a particular level. The more number the more times the price was rejected at the level, therefore, the more significant this level is. Looking over the price targets and resistance levels we can assume that the current uptrend may consolidate or retrace around the 5 level. In the meantime, the price is moving within a trend channel formed by the interim Bullish Resistance lines from the August highs on the upside and the interim Bullish Support lines from the November-December lows on the downside. It provides us with a good tool to measure the current conditions of the ongoing uptrend. The break out of the trend channel outer boundaries will tell whether the uptrend is strengthening or weakening.